Thursday 20 August 2009

Kennington Oval, Ashes 2009, #3

At the end of the first day, this Test match is hard to read in terms of Win Expectancy. If the Australians can put up some good scores in their innings, they will probably win the match. However, England's actual position, at 307/8, is quite a decent chance to convert to a win. Throwing in all the factors - the Australian batting, the effect of the remaining resources for England, and England's current position - the draw remains the most favoured outcome (42 per cent), followed by an Australian victory (35 per cent), with an English victory the least likely (23 per cent).

Let's look at how England batsmen affected their chances:

Cook         -.034
Strauss      +.016
Collingwood  -.035
Bell         +.062
Prior        +.071
Flintoff     -.151
Trott        +.040
Swann        -.013

Flintoff's was the most damaging wicket, which is to my mind somehow fitting given that this is his last Test. To prove the point about how he has been misunderstood by the selectors he should take ten wickets over the two innings, and go for not very many runs. His batting has always been overrated by England, and the persistence in regarding him as an all-rounder has weakened the side.

Australia have reason to be pleased with all their bowlers except Mitchell Johnson, who has been too expensive. Clark and Hilfenhaus may be lagging in taking wickets, but their economies are well-below the kind of number that characterizes a winning test side. Siddle's got the balance about right.
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1 comment:

  1. philistine21 August 2009 at 10:34

    Johnson took two key wickets in the middle order which is where an England counterattack has seen the momentum change and the home team gain a superior position from a losing one in this series. Is Johnson's expensiveness not offset by Hilfenhaus' and Clark's economy? Also he took two quick wickets which is, as we know, the best way to change win expectancy into your team's favour.

    For all the comments about Johnson's lack of form this series, he has taken wickets in every Test. Can we say the same for Harmison over his career? Or even Flintoff who has generally bowled well.

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