My model seems to have been right! I haven't actually finished fiddling with it, and now I'm not sure I will bother to get it done for this test.
However, I was looking at the scorecard after close of play, and I wondered about the difference between the standard deviations of the two sides' first innings.
Including extras, the standard deviation for the South Africans was 89.73. That for the Indians was 32.51. Does this have any meaning?
It may indicate that Nagpur's wicket is treacherous, at least for this test. If you can get in, it's possible for an exceptional batsman to put up a decent score, but otherwise you're scrabbling for runs and in danger of losing a wicket at any moment. If that's the case, it makes this is a result pitch, and future tourists should take note.
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