Alastair Cook, Stay or Go?

Alastair Cook is 25 years old, a left-handed bat, and bats in the first, second or third positions in the batting order during his career.

I took all batsmen who meet those qualifications in what might be called the 'Bangladesh Era' of Test cricket (since 2000), plus all England batsmen who also meet those qualifications, with a minimum of ten innings of batting. I then compared their Innings Average, their Bowling Overs per Innings and the Standard Deviation of their innings' scores. For those who think a hundred against Bangladesh might only be worth, say 80 runs against a better Test side, I also calculated the Innings Average by adjusting the value of Cook's runs downwards by 10 per cent, 20 per cent, 25 per cent and 33.3 per cent. (When you get to 50 per cent, you may as well exclude Bangladesh altogether, so I did that, too.) I'll rank them by Innings Average.

Player           InnAve   BO/I     StDev   Dates
Cook (-10%)      48.02
Alastair Cook    45.44    13.70    49.87   2009/10
Cook (-20%)      40.99
Kumar Sangakkara 40.40    13.00    29.39   2002/03
Cook (-25%)      39.88
Cook (no BAN)    37.91             42.96
Cook (-33.3%)    37.87
David Gower      37.62    13.63    30.02   1982/83
Wavell Hinds     36.70    11.50    34.09   2002
Salman Butt      34.80    12.26    30.59   2009/10
Graeme Smith     32.24     8.32    26.60   2006/07
Mark Butcher     30.87    13.70    33.27   1998
Sadagoppan Ramesh27.58    10.84    22.29   2000/01

The idea of dropping Cook because of his current poor run of form overlooks the fact that he isn't actually having a bad year. In fact, in this set of batsmen he is having the best age-25 year of them all, with the best Innings Average and tied for the best BO/I numbers with Mark Butcher's 1998.

The only warning sign is the very high standard deviation in Cook's innings' scores. As you can see, the better players in this list have much narrower deviations. As in the case of Ramesh, however, it is possible to have too narrow a deviation. My studies of the significance of standard deviations are still rudimentary. It does seem that there is a sweet spot of these in which class batters tend to maintain, and players who fall either side of this are flattering to deceive if they seem any good.

So, if there's an obvious alternative to Cook, then it might be worth including him in any Ashes squad. But Cook still seems to deserve his place, as far as the statistics can show us.

Sir Geoffrey's Edgbaston Recipe

Boycott, writing before the bad news about Kevin Pietersen, reconstructs the England side for the Edgbaston Test.

His recipe is:
Bell for Pietersen
Harmison for Onions
Sidebottom for Broad

As much as I think Sir Geoffrey is the closest thing to a real, live cricketer who thinks along sabermetric lines, I can't back all his suggestions. Although Sidebottom had a good first innings at this same ground against South Africa last year, he's not a particularly penetrative bowler against top batting sides. I don't think he'll provide sufficient difference to Broad. I don't mind giving Broad a match off, on my 'rest the bowlers' principle, but I don't see them as significantly different.

Harmison is an idea I can get behind. He's had his moments against Australia, especially during the 2005 Ashes series. He also did well against the South Africans at the Oval last year. However, he hasn't really been a consistent bowler since that last home Ashes series, so if he flopped at Edgbaston I'm not sure I'd go back to him. I'm not sure I'd bring him in to replace Onions. Onions has, in limited playing time, shown some ability to get Australian wickets.

Bell is a risky pick. I'm not sure I'd do it, but I don't know who else is available. People have suggested Key, but he's risky, too. He's vulnerable batting at the end of sessions as the Australians have shown in the past. But who else is there? The only players whose County Championship statistics are making an obvious case are Key and Jamie Dalrymple. I feel the stats have to yield first place to the people who actually watch a lot of cricket, and know the players, in making this pick. However, given Broad's spectacular catch, I'd give extra weight to fielding ability here.

So, my recipe has two changes from the Lord's Test.
Harmison for Broad
Best fielding batting candidate for Pietersen

Broad for Onions only if Onions is hurt.