'Oh, Calamity' - Headingley Test 2009

Michael Henderson just about says it all about the Headingley Test, although I haven't actually seen any of the action. I'm told CricInfo had rather over-egged the pudding in describing North's catch off Strauss.

Looking at a rough estimate of Win Expectancy at the end of England's first innings, they had about an 18 per cent chance of winning the Test from that point. Looking at how those wins were achieved, they fall into two categories:

1) Bowling out the other side for even less. ENGLAND FAIL
2) Keeping the other side's score within about 100 runs. ENGLAND FAIL

That leaves us commentators with not much to write about.

I could talk about England selection, and even Australian selection. After the Australian's hinted at something really radical, like using five bowlers, they fell into their default option, merely replacing the spinner with a pace bowler. Meanwhile, England, confronted with Flintoff's injury, were forced to think through all the permutations. One wonders if they thought at any length about sticking Trott in the side and going with four bowlers. I doubt it.

EDIT: Couldn't we make the same complaint about both Flintoff and Harmison? They bowl to too short a length? Food for thought there.

Andy Flower is a genius.

Because he agrees with me. Squad system for bowlers? Absolutely, positively!

'Test-class bowlers are the rarest and most valuable currency in the game....as the old saying goes, bowlers are born, batsmen are made.'

And, thus, you want to protect them from injury through overuse.

Edgbaston Win Expectancy Shifts

The Third Test between England and Australia produced, apart from this curiosity, some big shifts in win expectancy. I've pulled out the three biggest positive shifts, in terms of the side batting, and the three biggest negative ones. Reverse the polarity if you want to look at it in terms of bowling.

BIG Plus
Watson-Ponting, 41 runs for the 2nd wicket in AUS1 (+.218)
Watson-Hussey, 85 runs for the 3rd wicket in AUS2 (+.197)
Cook-Bopara, 58 runs for the 2nd wicket in ENG1 (+.171)

BIG Minus
Hussey, 0, in AUS1 (-.287)
Collingwood, 13, in ENG1 (-.188)
Ponting, 5, in AUS2 (-.178)

Honourable mention has to go to Cook, 0, in ENG1, which was worth -.176.

It's worth noting that for wickets or stands to count, they really need to come in pairs. It's no good piling on 100 runs and follow it with a pittance. Nor is taking a top batsman's wicket for a low score worth much if you don't break up the next partnership pretty quickly. You can let the wicket after that go for a bit, though. Anapestic metre, if you're of a poetic mind.

Are you surprised that the massive Clarke-North stand in the Australian second innings didn't appear? Probably not, as it was too late in the match to affect anything other than their averages. It actually did produce a positive effect, but I just wonder if the Australians should have cut it short when it was around a hundred and gone for a win. You never know.

Passing Observation

I am currently doing some win expectancy analysis of the Third Test in the Ashes series, and I noticed a curious fact. It seems that Australia's 7th and 8th wicket stands, which between them added a single run, actually improved their chances of winning. Is there some kind of cricket Moneyball-style market inefficiency we can take advantage of here? 'Hey, Johnson, throw your wicket away so we can win the match.'

The only explanation I can come up with for that, without examining all the Test scorecards, is that it suggests that the pitch or conditions favour the bowlers to such an extent that the side in can expect to take a lot of wickets quickly once the innings finish. If anyone has a better hypothesis, I'd be interested to hear it.

As soon as I finish the analysis, which I hope is later today, I'll post some thoughts about the drawn Test.

Edgbaston vs Washington, DC

Washington wins! Regrettably, the Society for American Baseball Research scheduled its annual conference to coincide with the Third Test of the Ashes series. I'll try to keep up with the news from there, but from past experience I know it's quite hard unless there's another cricket fan in the neighbourhood.

Hopefully, I'll get some ideas for further studies so that the temporary cricket famine will be a price worth paying.

Sir Geoffrey's Edgbaston Recipe

Boycott, writing before the bad news about Kevin Pietersen, reconstructs the England side for the Edgbaston Test.

His recipe is:
Bell for Pietersen
Harmison for Onions
Sidebottom for Broad

As much as I think Sir Geoffrey is the closest thing to a real, live cricketer who thinks along sabermetric lines, I can't back all his suggestions. Although Sidebottom had a good first innings at this same ground against South Africa last year, he's not a particularly penetrative bowler against top batting sides. I don't think he'll provide sufficient difference to Broad. I don't mind giving Broad a match off, on my 'rest the bowlers' principle, but I don't see them as significantly different.

Harmison is an idea I can get behind. He's had his moments against Australia, especially during the 2005 Ashes series. He also did well against the South Africans at the Oval last year. However, he hasn't really been a consistent bowler since that last home Ashes series, so if he flopped at Edgbaston I'm not sure I'd go back to him. I'm not sure I'd bring him in to replace Onions. Onions has, in limited playing time, shown some ability to get Australian wickets.

Bell is a risky pick. I'm not sure I'd do it, but I don't know who else is available. People have suggested Key, but he's risky, too. He's vulnerable batting at the end of sessions as the Australians have shown in the past. But who else is there? The only players whose County Championship statistics are making an obvious case are Key and Jamie Dalrymple. I feel the stats have to yield first place to the people who actually watch a lot of cricket, and know the players, in making this pick. However, given Broad's spectacular catch, I'd give extra weight to fielding ability here.

So, my recipe has two changes from the Lord's Test.
Harmison for Broad
Best fielding batting candidate for Pietersen

Broad for Onions only if Onions is hurt.

Johnson: Rest or Play?

Mitchell Johnson's form seems to be causing some concern in Australia. Even CricInfo bloggers compare him unfavourably with Stuart Broad, which is pretty damning considering one is an opening bowler and the other a 'change' bowler. One of my many theories is that, to paraphrase a baseball expression, There Is No Such Thing As a Reliable Bowler (TINSTARB). Here are some interesting figures to ponder.

                  Cumulative
Series              Overs      Economy
07/08 Aus vs SrL      82         2.94
07/08 Aus vs Ind     250.1       3.15
07/08 WIn vs Aus     355         3.31
Three months off
08/09 Ind vs Aus     166         3.14
08/09 Aus vs NZl     231.4       2.35
08/09 Aus vs RSA     391.2       2.76
08/09 RSA vs Aus     530.2       2.88
Three months off
09 Aus vs Eng         82.4       4.00

Notice that the more overs Johnson bowls, how his economy in each series goes up. He also saw his economy start high in the first series of the Southern Hemispher season. I think a combination of these factors is involved here. He's bowled, in Tests alone, over 900 overs in the past two years. This number is probably about the norm for the typical pace bowler at Test level; but since I think bowlers' workloads are too high, for the moment this is a datapoint in my argument.

On the other hand, he also does worse away from home. He wouldn't be the first cricketer in the world who thrived on home cooking. (See Trescothick, Marcus.)

Give Johnson a Test match off, then bring him back. If he still underperforms his average, and there's a better option, play the better option.