Thursday, 25 December 2008

Revised Murali & Vaas Bowling Projection

I could give you Fernando and Maharoof too, but according to CricInfo it's going to be Herath and Prasad. It being Christmas, I'm busy with family, but if I can get a moment to research figures, I'll try to project those chaps.

Name          Average        Economy      Strike Rate
Muralitharan 26.48 2.99 53.10
Vaas 32.42 3.20 60.83

I've boosted the Regression to the Mean a little, but nowhere near as much as my very first (never published) set of projections.

One of the fundamental principles of sabermetrics is to get the weight of that regression just right. Looking at these figures, I think the strike rates are more wrong than the averages and economies. (And, of course, these are projected against an average Test batsman, not an average Bangladesh Test batsman. They still aren't quite up to the overall average yet.)

No comments:

Post a Comment